Qiaqia Foods (002557) 2019H1 performance review: Q2 growth rebounded, gross profit of nuts improved, release of profit space

Qiaqia 杭州桑拿网 Foods (002557) 2019H1 performance review: Q2 growth rebounded, gross profit of nuts improved, release of profit space

Company dynamics The company released its 2019 Interim Report and achieved revenue 19 in the first half of the year.

8.7 billion yuan, an increase of 6.

0%, attributable net profit is 2.

2 billion yuan, an increase of 28.

1%, EPS is 0.

44 yuan / share.

  Matter comments In the first half of the year, the growth of reduction income increased by more than 10%, and the growth of blue bag seeds and yellow bag nuts exceeded 30%. The company’s Q2 revenue was 9%.

4.7 billion yuan, an increase of 11.

7%, the growth rate rebounded significantly, Q1 Spring Festival ahead of schedule and Qia Kang, the replacement of Huakui agricultural affiliates will have a certain impact on revenue, and recovery 杭州桑拿网 of the first half of the revenue growth rate is still two digits.

According to the reported quantity, the growth rate of red bag melon seeds Q2 rebounded, volume and price both increased by 8-10% in the first half of the year. Blue bag melon seeds further expanded the product category and market, with a growth rate of more than 30%, and the total revenue of melon seeds13.

700 million, an increase of 14.

3%.

Small yellow sacks are upgraded daily with new packaging of “Mastering the Key Insurance Technology”, raw materials are directly harvested globally in the current season, production systems are being automated, and revenue is achieved in the first half of the year2.

7.9 billion yuan, an increase of 39.

8%, of which the e-commerce end grew by 60%. In the second half of the year, the company strengthened its marketing cooperation with Focus Media in core cities and core audiences. It is expected that nuts will continue to grow rapidly, and the income tax index of 800-900 million yuan will gradually remain unchanged.
Yam crisps focus on the construction of 10 benchmark cities, and steadily promote the opening of the comprehensive market.

  The gross profit margin of nuts has improved significantly, and marketing expenses have been steadily released. The company’s overall gross profit margin for the first half of the year was 31.

8% (+2.

3pct), where Q2 gross margin is 33.

4% (+3.

1pct). First, the percentage of red bag price overlap with higher gross profit margin of blue bag seeds increased, and the gross profit rate of H1 seeds was 35.

28% (+0.

4 points). In the second half of the year, the price increase factor has subsided but the product structure optimization is still expected to achieve a steady increase in the gross profit margin of sunflower seeds. The second is the volume of nuts to increase capacity utilization and increase the impact of price increases last year.

26% (+5.

54pct), the cost of raw materials can be controlled in the future, benefiting from the decline in packaging costs of automated equipment to release 2-3 points of growth space for the gross profit margin of nuts, which is expected to reach about 24-26%.

In the first half of the year, the company’s sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratios were 13 respectively.

5% (+0.

5pct), 5.

4% (-0.

1pct), 0.

7% (+0.

2pct), -0.

25% (-0.

2pc), in which the sales cost is mainly an increase in advertising promotion costs. The company cooperates with Focus Media to launch building advertisements in 15 cities. The cost will be improved in stages, so that the increase in new product research and development investment leads to an increase in research and development costs.

2%.

Significant improvement in gross profit margin released elasticity for profit, and the company achieved attributable net profit in the first half of the year.

2 billion yuan, an increase of 28.

1%, net of non-attributable net profit 1.7.2 billion, an increase of 41.

3%, net interest rate 11.

1%, increase by 1 every year.

9 points.

  Focus on core categories, marketing reforms release vitality The company focuses on the two core categories of seeds and nuts, and accelerates development through quality upgrades, channel construction, and brand marketing.

In the first half of the year, the raw melon seeds were upgraded with raw materials, formulas, and packaging, and the product achieved stable growth; the gross profit margin of nuts continued to rise, and the online and offline channels expanded rapidly in the second half of the year.

In the next five years, the output value including tax will be 10 billion yuan, of which 5-5 billion will be sunflower seeds, 3.5 billion nuts, and 1.5 billion other categories.

  The company pioneers marketing reform and innovation, supports large dealers and implements performance PK mechanism in the dealer team, shortens the expense reimbursement period, improves the awareness of dealer groups, clear responsibilities definition, and further stimulates the potential of dealers.

At the same time, online live broadcasts, O2O new retail, etc. will be conducted online, positioning it as an interactive platform for young people, spreading the concept of “freshness, quality, happiness, fashion” and renewing the brand’s vitality.

  Investment recommendations We expect the company’s attributable net profit for 2019-2021 to be 5, respectively.

13/5.

91/6.

780,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 1.

01/1.

17/1.

34 yuan / share, corresponding PE is 25/21/19 times (based on the closing price of 2019/8/15).

The company has strategic cooperation with Focus, China and China to accelerate the channel layout and mental occupation of the nut yellow bag in the second half of the year, and it is expected to continue to achieve dazzling performance.

The focus of the two categories is clear. The marketing reform has released vitality, and the scale of 10 billion yuan is expected in the future.

Maintain the “overweight” rating.

  Risks remind that daily nut promotion is less than expected, the risk of rising raw material prices, the sharp increase in depreciation of fixed assets, and food safety risks.